A few private or throw-away accounts kept commenting conspiracy theories about Nawaf Salam on my posts on Instagram, I reckon they’re rumors spread by people who stand to lose illegitimate privilege in case he succeeds in the transformation of Lebanon, post-Assad and post-Nasrallah. So I thought, why not objectively compare what we wrote in 1987 and published by Oxford-based Centre for Lebanese Studies (CLS), and now.
Lebanon’s been shaped by its delicate sectarian balance, regional dynamics, and international pressures for as long as it has existed in its current format. Few people have articulated its challenges as incisively as Nawaf Salam. It’s part of why he is so widely respected, even by his detractors.
Today, we’re gonna dive into his 1987 An Essay on Political Opportunities and Constraints, and compare it to his positions in 2025 when he successfully got appointed as Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate.
Salam’s evolving positions reflect both consistency in principles and prudent adaptation to shifting realities. Let’s pick them apart together.
What Lebanon Was Like in 1987
Let’s try to visualize what sate Lebanon was in when this essay was published in 1987.
In 1987, Lebanon was fractured beyond recognition. Rashid Karami’s assassination in June was just another blow in a year defined by unchecked sectarian violence, economic collapse, and militia-driven chaos.
Beirut, carved into East and West, embodied the Christian-Muslim militias divide, while Israel’s occupation in the south fueled resistance from Hezbollah and other groups later sidelined by Hezbollah. Kidnappings of Western hostages by Hezbollah-linked groups painted Lebanon as a place of lawlessness and despair on the global stage.
The economy was in free fall, with the Lebanese pound’s collapse and runaway inflation making survival a daily struggle for most.
Syria tightened its grip on Lebanon, entrenching itself in the country’s fractured political system and deploying troops under the guise of stabilizing the chaos.
I feel like amid this chaos, Salam’s essay was less a policy prescription and more a measured reckoning with the situation. It laid bare the impossibility of simplistic solutions, like partition or dismantlement, and sketched out a vision that dared to imagine a balance—one that addressed deep-seated inequalities while acknowledging the grim realities of a country in freefall.
The 1987 Essay: Political Constraints and Opportunities
His analysis focused on three key areas:
Partition and Dismantlement: Salam unequivocally opposed partition as a solution to Lebanon’s sectarian tensions. He argued that partitioning the country would exacerbate conflicts and lacked support domestically, regionally, and internationally. Similarly, he rejected the notion of dismantlement (imposed by external actors), warning of destabilizing ripple effects across the Middle East.
National Identity: Salam emphasized the need to reconcile Lebanon’s Arab identity with its unique Christian-Muslim coexistence. He viewed this balance as central to fostering loyalty to the state and maintaining Lebanon’s territorial integrity.
Political Reforms: Recognizing the failures of the 1943 National Pact, Salam called for a “New Deal” to address demographic shifts, social inequalities, and governance issues. He proposed creating new institutions like a Constitutional High Court and decentralizing governance to strengthen local participation.
The New Deal of 1987
Central to Salam’s vision for Lebanon in 1987 was his proposal for a “New Deal,” a framework designed to rebuild the nation’s political and social structures. The key elements of this proposal included:
Balance of Power: Salam emphasized the need to address the grievances of the Muslim majority while reassuring the Christian minority. This involved balancing political representation to reflect demographic realities without marginalizing any group.
Creation of New Institutions: He proposed establishing a Constitutional High Court to resolve political disputes and ensure the integrity of constitutional governance. Additionally, a Socio-Economic Council would address economic inequalities and guide development policies.
Decentralization: Salam advocated for decentralizing governance through the creation of elected provincial councils. This would increase local participation in decision-making and reduce the concentration of power in Beirut.
Merit-Based Bureaucracy: To reduce corruption and nepotism, he called for open access to government jobs based on merit rather than sectarian quotas.
Gradual Abolition of Sectarianism: While recognizing the entrenched sectarian loyalties, Salam’s New Deal envisioned a gradual move toward a secular state. This would involve initially limiting sectarian representation to specific roles, such as a senate, while transitioning parliamentary elections to a non-sectarian proportional basis.
Expansion of Political Participation: Salam proposed increasing the size of Parliament and lowering the voting age to include more voices, particularly those of Lebanon’s politically active youth.
2024: A Leader in Crisis
While the details have shifted, Lebanon in 2025 echoes much of the turmoil of 1987. Both periods are marked by economic collapse, with rampant inflation and widespread poverty driving social unrest. In 2025, an additional $10 billion in economic losses compounds the suffering, while part of the South remains under Israeli occupation. The country also grapples with piecing together something coherent from a fractured identity, the differences intensified by the fall of Assad's regime and Hezbollah's significantly diminished military influence which kept everyone else docile, or else.
His public statements so far reveal how his positions have definitely evolved while remaining anchored in his core principles:
Inclusivity and Unity: Salam’s 2025 rhetoric reflects his long-standing opposition to partition. By extending “both hands” to all factions, including Hezbollah, he emphasizes unity as the cornerstone of rebuilding Lebanon. This mirrors his 1987 belief in the necessity of preserving Lebanon’s territorial and social cohesion.
State Authority: Salam’s commitment to extending state authority across all parts of the country is a modern echo of his earlier rejection of external interference and parallel power structures within Lebanon. His 2024 stance highlights the importance of re-establishing sovereignty in a fractured state, and making sure only the state has a monopoly on weapons.
Economic Reforms: In 2025, Salam prioritizes economic recovery, stating the need to “build a modern economy” and implement reforms to secure international investments. While his 1987 essay focused primarily on political restructuring, his current focus on economic issues underscores an adaptive response to Lebanon’s acute financial crisis.
Consistency and Evolution
Consistency in Vision:
Salam’s lifelong emphasis on unity and inclusivity remains a defining feature of his political philosophy. His rejection of partition and focus on fostering national dialogue have been consistent pillars of his thought.
His advocacy for institutional reforms, from his “New Deal” proposal in 1987 to his 2024 pledges for governance improvement, demonstrates an enduring commitment to systemic change.
Evolution in Approach:
Engagement with Hezbollah: While his 1987 essay did not address Hezbollah specifically, Salam’s 2024 openness to engage with all factions reflects a pragmatic adaptation to Lebanon’s modern political realities. Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon’s power structure cannot be ignored, and Salam’s approach signals an effort to foster dialogue over division, given how Hezbollah's ability to impose its will by sheer force, is no longer a factor.
Economic Prioritization: The focus on economic reforms in 2024 marks a shift from the identity and governance-centric concerns of his earlier work. Lebanon’s dire financial crisis has necessitated this pivot, demonstrating Salam’s ability to address pressing contemporary challenges.
The Road Ahead
Nawaf Salam’s journey from intellectual analyst to political leader offers a blueprint for navigating Lebanon’s complexities. His enduring belief in unity and reform provides a stable foundation, while his adaptive approach reflects the need for pragmatic leadership in times of crisis.
As Salam steps into his role as Prime Minister-designate, Lebanon stands at a crossroads. Whether he can translate his vision into tangible progress remains to be seen, but his trajectory from 1987 to 2024 offers valuable insights into the interplay of principles and pragmatism in leadership.
For Lebanon, the challenge lies not only in rebuilding its institutions but also in fostering a shared vision of a united, resilient future—a vision Salam has consistently championed throughout his career.
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